Record Diesel and $4.44 Gas Meet a Midterm Clock

The U.S. average for regular gasoline reached $4.4386 a gallon on Sept. 17, and 61 percent of voters now call gas prices a major problem. Diesel, the fuel that moves harvests and freight, printed an all-time high of $6.3956 the same day on the AAA series.

President Donald Trump has already said cheaper oil comes after the Nov. 3 midterms. The invoice is on the pump while the war with Iran is still open.

Pump Prices Clear $4.40 as Diesel Sets a Record

AAA’s daily board, dated Sept. 17, put the national average of $4.4386 a gallon for regular, up 7 cents from Sept. 16 and 16 cents from a week earlier. A month earlier the same average was $4.0636. A year earlier it was $3.2003, so the year-over-year jump is $1.24.

Mid-grade sat at $4.9339 and premium at $5.3239. Those grades moved with regular. Diesel did more than that. It set the highest national average AAA has on record, beating every prior print in the series, including the 2022 shock.

AAA NATIONAL AVERAGES ON SEPT. 17

Regular’s series high remains $5.0165, set June 14, 2022. Thursday’s print is still 58 cents below that mark. Diesel is 73 percent higher than a year ago, a $2.69 gap, and 42 cents higher than a week ago. The Energy Information Administration’s separate weekly survey, for the week of Sept. 14, put regular at $4.319 and a weekly diesel average of $6.285, the first time that government series had cleared $6.

Harvest Runs on the Costliest Diesel Ever

Combines, grain trucks, and tractors burn diesel, and they are rolling now. Paul Kurtz, a farmer about 90 miles outside Kansas City who voted for Trump, told an interviewer his combine takes about 200 gallons a day across a harvest that can run 30 days. “We have to harvest,” he said. “We have to run the machines. We have to use the diesel, so it cuts into our bottom line.”

That bill is on top of planting. A July analysis by the Joint Economic Committee’s minority staff, using AAA and EIA prices plus USDA acreage, found farmers paid $1.4 billion extra diesel during planting of corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, and rice than they had a year earlier, a 63 percent increase. The staff said that sum leaves out generators, hauling to market, and every other diesel use on a farm.

WHERE THE PLANTING DIESEL BILL LANDED

• Illinois: An extra $163 million versus 2025, the largest state total in the study.
• Iowa: An extra $151 million, second on the list.
• Minnesota: An extra $102 million, third.
• On-farm tank: About $1,500 more to refill a typical 750-gallon tank at the spring peak than a year earlier.

Paul Mitchell, a professor of agricultural and applied economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said the damage is not only in the field. “It’s the hauling of everything, moving the grain or the silage from the field to the farm and then from the farm to wherever they’re selling it.” Grocery prices are already a major problem for 62 percent of registered voters in the new national poll. Diesel is how that pressure travels.

California Is the Only State Above $6

California is the only state averaging more than $6 for regular. AAA’s California print on Sept. 17 was $6.0851, $1.65 above the national average and $1.43 above a year earlier. Statewide diesel was $8.3496, also a record on that board. Hawaii, at $5.4838 for regular, was the next-most expensive state on the national map.

The Automobile Club of Southern California’s Weekend Gas Watch, as of 9 a.m. Sept. 17, put Los Angeles-Long Beach at $6.13, San Diego at $6.15, the Central Coast at $6.10, Riverside at $6.02, and Bakersfield at $6.01. “Middle East oil supply concerns continue to impact pump prices nationwide and particularly in states like California that import significant amounts of oil from the Middle East,” said Auto Club spokesperson Kandace Redd. Oil had eased a little from earlier in the week, she said, “but would need to drop significantly more to affect pump prices locally.”

Some California diesel boards have run out of digits. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, posted that several stations hit $9.999 a gallon, the top figure many four-digit displays can show. He later said some of those posts were empty tanks, a common way stations flag a dry pump. An employee at a Shell in San Diego’s Serra Mesa neighborhood, reached by phone, said diesel was still for sale there at $9.99 as of Sept. 12.

Trump Tells Voters Relief Comes After November

The war with Iran began Feb. 28 and is in its seventh month. On Sept. 9, before flying to the Republican midterm convention in Dallas, Trump told reporters at Joint Base Andrews that cheaper crude waits until after Americans vote. “Right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward,” he said. “I think it’s going to take a little bit longer than the midterm.” He also said, “I think the war’s going to end immediately after the election because they can’t hold out any longer.”

In North Carolina on Sept. 16, with pump prices still rising, he treated the bill as the cost of keeping a nuclear weapon out of Iranian hands.

It’s a very inexpensive price to pay for what we’ve done, remember that.

President Donald Trump, North Carolina, Sept. 16, 2026

He added that even a much higher price would be worth it, and that the cost would come “tumbling down,” “like a rocket ship in reverse.” On Truth Social he wrote that oil was higher under Joe Biden, that “with the temporary exception of Oil, prices are coming down sharply,” and that oil “will drop like a rock as soon as the Military Conflict with Iran is over, and that will not be long.”

The Energy Information Administration’s daily snapshot for the Sept. 16 close put West Texas Intermediate at $103.62 a barrel and showed Brent crude closed at $127.84. Those are official marks from a day when crude actually fell a few percent and retail prices still rose. Pumps lag barrels. Redd’s warning about California is the same lag in plain language.

THE WAR, THE PUMP, THE CALENDAR

1. Feb. 28, 2026: The United States joins the war with Iran, opening a crude shock that has run into a seventh month.
2. Sept. 9, 2026: Trump says oil prices tumble after the election and that the war ends once the vote is in.
3. Sept. 11 to 14, 2026: Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research field a national survey of 1,211 registered voters.
4. Sept. 16, 2026: The poll is released. Trump, in North Carolina, calls higher gasoline an inexpensive price to pay.
5. Sept. 17, 2026: AAA prints regular at $4.4386 and diesel at $6.3956, a record for diesel.

The Nov. 3 election is the date he pointed to. He has also said he will campaign for 35 critical seats. Republicans hold narrow majorities in both chambers. The fuel print will still be on the board when early ballots move.

What the New Poll Shows on Prices

Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research interviewed 1,211 registered voters from Sept. 11 to 14, with a margin of error of 3 points. The sample mixed 96 landline interviews, 821 cellphone interviews, and 294 text-to-web completes. 61 percent called gas prices a major problem, up from 48 percent two years earlier, a 13-point rise. Grocery prices were a major problem for 62 percent, housing for 54 percent, and health care for 52 percent.

THE SEPTEMBER POCKETBOOK READ

• The economy: 63 percent say the Trump White House has made the economy worse, including 73 percent of independents, 26 percent of Republicans, and 95 percent of Democrats, 11 points higher than a year ago.
• Inflation trust: 55 percent say Democrats would do a better job on inflation and prices, 40 percent pick Republicans, a 15-point edge after Republicans led by 9 points four years ago.
• Top issue: 34 percent name the cost of living unprompted, 14 percent name the economy and jobs, 8 percent name immigration, and 4 percent name the Iran war.
• Approval: 39 percent approve of Trump’s job and 61 percent disapprove. On inflation he is at 24 percent approval and 74 percent disapproval, matching his low with these pollsters.

Sixty-four percent say tariffs have hurt the U.S. economy. Sixty-eight percent say life will be worse for the next generation. Only 8 percent are enthusiastic about how government is working; 68 percent are unhappy, including 33 percent who are angry. Political analyst Brit Hume, reading the same survey on television, said, “This business with prices is just killing the administration.”

Craig Agranoff, a political professor at Florida Atlantic University, said a $4.40 gallon with 61 percent calling it a major problem “is a real warning for Republicans, not background noise.” Midterms, he said, turn on what people feel each week at the pump and the grocery store. “Messaging alone will not fix a $4 gallon. If prices stay here through October, affordability will dominate the map.”

The June 2022 High Is Still 58 Cents Higher

The White House’s favorite yardstick is June 14, 2022, when AAA’s regular average hit $5.0165 under Biden. Thursday’s $4.4386 print is 58 cents under that peak, and that gap is real. It is also the wrong fuel for the farm belt and for freight. Diesel’s record is new. It did not exist in 2022 at $6.3956. California diesel at $8.3496 did not either.

Four years ago, Republicans led on inflation by 9 points in this poll series. They now trail by 15. That is a 24-point swing on the issue Trump used to win. Voters who trust Democrats on inflation split over why: 51 percent point to Republican failure, 47 percent to faith that Democratic policy would cut prices. The comparison to 2022 still works as a talking point. It is not working as a permission slip on groceries, rent, or the pump.

Sixty percent of voters in the survey say the United States made the wrong decision in taking military action against Iran, and 77 percent of that group favor the Democratic House candidate in their district. The war is the reason crude is where it is. It is also a second price, paid on the same ballot as the gallon.

A 7-Point Democratic Lead on the House Ballot

If the election were held when the survey was taken, 51 percent said they would back the Democrat in their House district and 44 percent the Republican, a 7-point edge just outside the 3-point margin of error. Among those who rated themselves a 10 on a 10-point likelihood-to-vote scale, the lead grew to 11 points, 54 to 43. In counties where the 2024 presidential race was within 10 points, Democrats led 52 to 43. Independents favored the Democrat 53 to 31, with 14 percent undecided.

Trump’s approval has not cleared 39 percent since April, when it was 42 percent. The poll notes that 39 percent trails Biden’s 43 percent at this point in 2022 and lines up with Barack Obama’s 38 percent before the 2014 midterms. A Trump endorsement now makes 25 percent of voters more likely to support a candidate and 51 percent less likely. Inside the GOP, 52 percent of Republicans and 75 percent of MAGA Republicans say his approval increases their support. The base is not the problem in this data. The independents are.

When pundits and analysts talk about the fundamentals favoring the Democrats in this midterm, they are mostly referring to the economy. Time is running out for the administration and its supporters to convince voters that things are improving.

Daron Shaw, Republican pollster, Beacon/Shaw September survey

On Sept. 17, AAA logged diesel at $6.3956, the highest average in the series, with the Nov. 3 election still ahead.